The Democratic Trend Phenomenon discusses a unique and virtually unknown phenomenon pertaining to the popular vote for the Democratic candidate for president. The author of the book, Anthony E. Fairfax, brings to light compelling evidence that the popular vote for the Democratic candidate for president trended in an extremely predictable or “linear” pattern from 1972 to 2000 (if the election of 1976 is disregarded). In fact, the Trend was so predictable that the popular vote for the Democratic candidates, in the elections of 1992, 1996, and 2000, could have all been determined in 1988 with an accuracy of 99% or better. During that same period of time the popular vote for the Republican candidates fluctuated from election to election.
This unique predictability or “linearity” has been deemed by Fairfax as, “The Democratic Trend Phenomenon.” His book discusses the cause of the phenomenon, measures its predictability, and outlines the future effects. “Amazingly, the predictable trend occurs despite the fact that each election contained varying voter turnout percentages, different opponents, fluctuating U.S. and global conditions, and diverse candidates,” states Fairfax. These differing electoral conditions are extremely intriguing when you consider that: the voter turnout fluctuated from election to election; opponents varied from Richard Nixon to Ronald Reagan to George W. Bush; and Democratic candidates ranged from George McGovern to Bill Clinton to Al Gore.
One of the most interesting discoveries of this novel theory involves projecting the popular vote percentage for the Democratic candidates as well as who Fairfax calls the “Non-Democratic candidates.” Because of the phenomenon, the percentages of the popular vote of the Democratic candidates also tend to trend in a linear fashion. Projecting the
trend to the 2008 election yields 51.1% (+ 2.7%) of the vote for Senator Barack Obama while 48.9% (+ 2.5%) is divided amongst Senator John McCain and the other Non-Majority Party candidates.
Part One of the book includes chapters that describe the phenomenon as well as discuss the historical environment that existed in order to create the predictable trend itself. Part Two includes chapters with statistical techniques that prove the presence of the Phenomenon and other observable facts. Part Three analyzes the phenomenon at the state level. Part Four includes chapters that outline the future potential results regarding the popular vote for the Democratic candidate for president.
Anthony
E. Fairfax is
a consultant who specializes in geodemographic analysis. For
over 17 years he has provided demographic, technical, or
Geographic Information System (GIS) support and training. His
consulting services extend to
variety of state, regional, and national organizations. He has
worked on an assortment of research projects serving both the
public and private sectors. In addition, his consulting
includes working on several court cases as a non–testifying redistricting expert.
Fairfax holds a Bachelor of
Science degree in Electrical Engineering from Virginia Tech.
